Question by Taylor H: What States have zero emission vehicle programs?
Best answer:
Answer by Rodney
emissions reduction.
1
The goals of the ZEV program include helping assure the transformation needed
for very low or zero-emitting vehicles consistent with the State goal of an 80% reduction in GHG
emissions by 2050. Improvements in conventional internal combustion engine vehicles are critical, but
will be unlikely to enable this 2050 goal to be reached. A strengthened ZEV program that leads to
commercialization of electric-drive vehicles in the near term will be needed to achieve this goal because
of the time needed for the current fleet to turnover, or be replaced, and the emission reductions
trajectory.
An assessment was conducted to evaluate automaker’s ability to comply with the ZEV requirements in
California and in other states that have adopted the standards (herein, section 177 states). Forecasts
generated by The Planning Edge were conducted on automakers’ planned production and sales of
electric-drive vehicles over the next five model years. Over forty vehicle models from twelve major
original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and ten new entrants are considered in the forecasts.
The results of the forecasts show that the U.S. market for electric-drive vehicles will grow from
approximately 85,000 vehicles in model year (MY) 2012 to between 320,000 to 540,000 by MY 2015,
with cumulative U.S. sales reaching 1 to 1.3 million for electric-drive vehicles by 2015. The range reflects
low and high oil price cases. Slightly over one-quarter of these vehicles are estimated to be produced by
new entrants.
For California, it is estimated that 40,000 to 140,000 vehicles could be sold in MY 2015 in the low and
high cases, respectively, with cumulative sales ranging from 115,000 to 370,000 by 2015. The analysis
also considers the industry’s ability to comply given California’s requirements together with other states
that have adopted California’s ZEV program, as authorized under Clean Air Act Section 177. As shown
below, the forecasted U.S. sales over each ZEV period will likely greatly exceed the ZEV requiremen
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